Out of the Box

If you’ve given me a business card in the past few years, you probably know that I’m a user of the CardScan business card scanner and what is now called the “At Your Service” update service. After eight major releases on Windows, though, the product has finally come to the Mac. Company reps told me they wanted to “get it right” and it looks like they’ve done a nice job with the UI. The killer feature is being able to browse your cards “cover flow” style.

Unfortunately, CardScan for Mac is not yet plugged into “At Your Service” but that should be on the developers’ docket.

Now that I’ve used a bit of parody to point out how some of Microsoft’s challenges with Vista aren’t really its fault, I’m again addressing Microsoft’s Vista commercials. I didn’t find the second Gates-Seinfeld spot to have as pronounced a latent message as the first, although I defended both ads’ general direction in a podcast discussion with Gene Steinberg this week (iTunes link here, MP3 file here).

The new “I’m a PC” commercial, Web presence, and what Michael Gartenberg points out to be the social aspects, though, take things in a different direction and is doing unto Apple what Apple did to Vista, mischaracterize it. As I said early on in the Get a Mac campaign, one reason the commercials worked was that they avoided the bad taste that the Switcher campaign left in many PC users’ mouths. The “Get a Mac” ads don’t really stereotype PC users, they stereotype the PC (although Hodgman’s behavior has become more bizarre as the campaign has progressed.). Reassociating the person and the platform again portrays Apple as the snide PC user-mocking company of yore. However, with Apple’s surge over the past few years and Apple stores opening their doors to millions of PC users, can that label stick? And are even satisfied PC users offended by the “Get a Mac” campaign?

The ad also evokes recent Microsoft advertising history as this notion of the PC as an empowering tool sounds very similar to Microsoft’s messaging in the “Wow starts now” ads that ran at he launch of Vista, with the new twist that acknowledges Windows’ ubiquity (which Get a Mac has also done in an ad in which PC says, “I’m still the king.”) . But that’s not necessarily bad. It reinforces that — while there may be more cause to grumble than on a Mac — the vast majority of the vast array of Vista users are being productive on the platform.

It’s a bit out there — particularly with the ethereal music and outtakes of shoes in the shower and Spanish-speaking onlookers — but I give the first Seinfeld commercial for Microsoft a thumbs-up for a few reasons.

We often think of Microsoft today as a sprawling entity which, even in the consumer market, fighting three fronts online against Google, in videogames against Sony, and in the MP3 market versus Apple. Gates, however, is strongly identified with the PC, and reintroducing him to the public after all the media around his retirement brings back some of the lightheartedness associated with his public persona. The club card is probably the funniest part of the ad and maybe a bit of a nod to Jerry’s old Amex commercials. (That said, I think some of Gates’ CES videos were funnier than this commercial.)

It’s a good teaser, and the talk about cake at the end creates an intriguing positive association reinforced by the word “Delicious.”  But the commercial is more than a teaser. The whole “shoe that fits” scenario is a clear lead-in to finding the right PC for you, which brings a fresh and more relevant spin to the old arguments of Windows offering more choice.

Finally, it’s “getting people talking” and focusing attention away from the bad publicity around Vista that’s had fuel thrown on its fire by another pair of guys.

You can continue to deride netbooks as underpowered toys if you like, and I agree with many of my fellow analysts that they will account for a niche in overall PC shipments this year, but there’s no doubt that netbooks are challenging the PC status quo in many ways — “retro” and alternative operating systems, newcomer brands such as Sylvania, and interesting distribution potential, such as via cellular operators.

Dell is definitely positioning these products in an advantageous way by offering its Inspiron Mini for $99 with purchase of a select other PC, reinforcing the message that this is a sort of computing peripheral. (Dell has offered similar promotions on monitors and printers in the past.) It’s also a fresh arrow for the company to tuck into in its challenged upsell quiver. Of course, I’ve argued previously that the lower-cost Linux configuration lives up to that designation better.

In an Analyst Angle column I wrote for RCR Wireless News about  AT&T’s adoption of Microsoft Surface for its showrooms, I argued that having the table-based kiosks available in stores would benefit the wireless carrier and be good for the industry. Some wrote to me saying that what the wireless carrier really needed was a greater number of skilled store workers and not gee-wizardry, but of course those things are not mutually exclusive. In fact, they are complementary.

In fact, when I was interviewed for Fox Business News on the day of the iPhone 3G launch, there were no iPhones at the store that was the site of the interview. There were, however, two Surface computers and, yes, they were being used by curious customers months after their introduction.

One interesting angle in this deployment is the branding of applications on Surface. The most interesting is CityTips, which may help reduce some of the load on concierges at the hotels by serving as a local guide to restaurants, bars, etc. I’m sure it won’t contain much that couldn’t be found on a laptop, but it’s a pretty common scenario for group outing planning to happen in a hotel lobby.

Other apps include he Sounds of Sheraton playlist creator, which would be a lot cooler if it could be used to deliver CDs (yeah, I know but lots of hotel rooms still have players) to a guest’s room, and Sheraton Snapshots, which seems like the weakest of the three as all it does is let you surf photos and information of other Sheraton properties. That’s the kind of thing that can be done at one’s leisure. When you’re a tourist, you’re interested in what’s happening in town, not at other hotels.

Speaking of proportions, according to OC Register, Averatec will enter the netbook market this fall with what looks like a pretty well-equipped netbook with a nice design as well, and available at retail for under $500 this holiday season.

I’ve had the opportunity to get hands-on with a number of these products and am coming to favor those with 10″ screens, at least aesthetically, for a few reasons. First, they simply look less toy-like, a complaint I’ve heard levied a number of times against other netbooks. Second, they address the problem of either having a cramped or compromised keyboard versus having an unusually large bezel around the screen, thus resulting in a better-proportioned look. I have some concern about 10.2″ models being a bit less portable than, the 8.9″ variety that has attracted much interest, but these should still be ideal airline tray companions.

Sylvania, one of the TV brands featured at  Wal-Mart, just announced that it will be entering the netbook market with the webcam-enabled 8.9″ LED-backlit “Sylvania g netbook MESO.” .The rest of the specs seem in line with what we’ve seen from other entrants — 1.6 GHz Intel Atom, 2.2 lbs, multi-card reader. It will be available with an 80 GB hard drive running XP Home or Ubuntu Netbook Remix. The MESO will follow the VIA C7-based Sylvania g that the company has offered. with gOS.

In addition to the onyx color pictured, it will be available in snow, solar and blossom, known to the less marketing-oriented as white, yellow and pink. Sylvania’s entry is but one of a number of these products that we’ll be seeing from nontraditional PC companies in the coming months. In addition to technology, it looks like distribution will be a key differentiation point for these products. But even at $299 for some models of netbooks, the market dynamics will be much different than they were for companies hoping to repeat the success of digital picture frames with netbooks this holiday season.

Update: A few blogs have linked here noting that Wal-Mart will be selling the product for $299. I’ve updated the post to clarify that $299 has been an entry price point for some products in the category and isn’t necessarily the price of this product. Also, while Wal-Mart does carry Sylvania TVs, there’s been no indication that Wal-Mart will carry this netbook.

Gartner analyst Steve Prentice may just be being provocative if he is saying that the computer mouse will see a demise within the next five years. That is simply too short a window for a convention as institutionalized as the mouse to disappear as well as too short a time for some of the experimental alternatives he cites to go mainstream. Indeed, mouse R&D continues apace and it is the mouse — not the keyboard — that is driving the input peripheral aftermarket.

All that said, I was actually thinking of less dramatic challengers to the input staple a day or so before Prentice’s prediction made the rounds. How will mouse developers respond to multitouch? I suppose they could add buttons that would simulate certain gestures, but the trackpad is rapidly moving from a second-class input device to one that can circumvent many UI elements (such as scroll bars) originally designed for the mouse. Multitouch gestures are more “natural” than many mouse movements, although there aren’t necessarily intuitive.

Of course, neither is the mouse. I have an enduring memory of a computer novice circa 1990 encountering the computing appendage for the first time. She picked it up and tried dragging icons across the screen by touching them with the mouse. I wonder what she would think of a TouchSmart PC these days.

In a piece that casts doubt on the future of the (sigh) “netbook” market, Matt Richtel curiously provides quotes from Sony Electronics and Fujitsu, two of the more successful companies selling high-end ultraportables in the U.S., but doesn’t include any quotes from companies that have actually launched these products here, including HP and Asus.

It’s not surprising that Sony and Fujitsu would be relatively down on inexpensive ultraportables because their products are the most immediately threatened by inexpensive notebook PCs with small screens. Really, though, they needn’t worry, because anyone willing to invest $1,500 or more for a high-end ultraportable isn’t going to downgrade to this product.

In other words, at least in the UI.S., netbooks are about market expansion at a time when consumers are going more mobile. HP at least is thinking about these products in the right way, targeting students and other select demographics who need light computing on the go. Is that 10 percent of the notebook market for the next two years? Probably not. But as Tim Bajarin aptly notes in the Times piece, when you are at the scale of an HP or Dell, you’re not going to surrender shelf space or mindshare to an unknown Asian upstart.

It’s all well and good to pursue margin, but there’s no margin in a market that doesn’t yet exist. While we will see barebones Linux configurations for  $300 or $400, more of the market is going to be closer to $500 or $600 where major manufacturers move plenty of Windows notebooks, many of which have at least some higher component costs.

This fall, we’re going to see a lot of activity in this market.. it’s going to get pretty bloody fast. And to be clear, the space between the smartphone and notebook PC has been a difficult one to fill. But it’s very difficult to ascertain the true potential of this device because their real opportunity is in a world of integrated, affordable broadband wireless access, an evolution of the explosive growth notebooks saw after Wi-Fi became popular.

I had questioned how Dell would respond to the challenge of the Mini-Note after Michael Dell said that it would, and the preliminary answer seems to be “very well” as it has taken the high-design route. The mini-Inspiron has a lowered hinge like the MacBook Air and HP Mini-Note and the glossy red cover is strongly reminiscent of he Lenovo IdeaPad U110. In at least one picture, though, the Dell logo looks upside down when it is facing others.

Things I immediately like about the mini-Inspiron just from the picture include more traditional trackpad button layout versus the Mini-Note and a better screen to form factor fit. However, my concern is that both of these have come at the expense of the keyboard, which looks smaller than the Mini-Note’s (but hopefully bigger than the Eee’s). It also looks less chunky than other products in the class although that may just be an illusion of the photo angle. The big unresolved questions, of course, include specs (including battery life), and price.